{"id":1423,"date":"2021-05-24T11:00:42","date_gmt":"2021-05-24T15:00:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/?p=1423"},"modified":"2024-04-25T23:20:01","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T03:20:01","slug":"real-estate-markets-in-the-second-half-of-2021-bull-and-bear-cases","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/real-estate-markets-in-the-second-half-of-2021-bull-and-bear-cases\/","title":{"rendered":"Real Estate Markets in the Second Half of 2021: Bull and Bear Cases"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Image<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Summer 2021 will be a hot one for the real estate market,\nsays the Home Buying Institute. But is the raging home-buying bull market sustainable?\nWith property values up well over 10% in many areas, some market watchers are\nasking if housing is a bubble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, there are several good reasons for optimism ahead. But\nthese days, we\u2019re doing our best to prepare for anything. So, let\u2019s look at the\npositive signals first. Then, let\u2019s check over the concerns heading into late\n2021.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

Bullish Sign #1. Buyers Are Getting Good Mortgage Rates.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Image<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

In March 2019, one year before the pandemic, property values were up and mortgage rates were around 4%<\/a>. When Covid first appeared in North America, the housing market and just about everything else suddenly paused. Then, the pandemic really took hold. Mortgage rates dropped below 3%. The demand for mortgage loans took off, and the buying continued. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fortunately for buyers, mortgage rates are expected to stay\nin the three-point-something range throughout most of 2021. This makes\nborrowing money for a home very appealing. Many who are now in the position to\nbuy will jump at this opportunity before rates return to their pre-pandemic\nnumbers.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, the case looks bullish for Summer, but what about later in the year? Some analysts think mortgage rates will go up at the end of 2021<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish Sign #2. High Demand, With a New Set of Buyer Preferences.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As of late Spring 2021, it\u2019s still very much a seller\u2019s\nmarket<\/a> with no signs of slowing down. Adding to this is the change\nin buyer preferences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lives have changed. Today\u2019s buyer is reshaping real estate accordingly,\nand keeping the market strong. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hybrid workspace, combining Zooming from home and\nmeetings at a physical office, is a mainstay now. People want homes with specific\nplaces for work and for privacy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Smart home technology and green construction methods are\nalso at the top of many buyers\u2019 minds. So are health-supportive systems such as\nUV lights and high-tech filtration for heating and air conditioning units.\nInnovation \u2014 in all of these aspects at once \u2014 is stimulus for the real estate\nmarket.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u261b<\/em><\/strong> Selling your house\nthis year? Buyers\u2019 preferences have changed. Appeal\nto buyers who work at least partly from home. It can boost your listing<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish Sign #3. People Are Feeling Safer.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

People are getting out of their homes. Retail, personal\nservices, restaurant and hotel jobs are coming back. As potential home buyers regain\ntheir financial footing, they\u2019ll start looking at homes and mortgages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Urban markets that saw drops in demand, such as New York\nCity, now see resurging interest from bargain-hunting buyers. Additionally,\nsome homeowners who quietly waited out the virus are now having yard sales, having\ntheir homes staged, staying in hotels or with friends if that\u2019s the plan, and\nselling their homes. Summer is always a good season for moving. This summer, we\ncan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For these reasons, we can expect this summer to be a sizzler\nfor real estate deals. But is the surge sustainable? If not, when can we expect\nmomentum to fade? Let\u2019s look at how the market could be poised for a reversal if\nthe real estate bears are right. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish Sign #1. Interest Rates Are Already Rising. <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Image<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Financial stimulus, a healthier job market, and the\nreopening of social and commercial spaces will all lead to inflation and rising\ninterest rates. It could all turn out to be too much for buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As customers and workers return to the retail, leisure and\nentertainment industries, higher interest rates are inevitable. This is a\nCatch-22 for hopeful homebuyers. They need roughly $10,000 more to afford a home\nwhen interest rates rise from the 2.75% level to 3%. That jump has already\noccurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As rates increase, people hesitate to buy. Based on this\ntrajectory, Kevin Paffrath, a California gubernatorial candidate, can visualize\nhome prices plunging 20% after September or October. Paffrath calls that time\nan \u201can inflection point\u201d when we\u2019ll know whether inflation is merely transitory\nor here to stay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish Sign #2. Real Estate Is Already Overvalued. <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Owners\nhave built up a lot of equity<\/a> in their homes over the recent few\nyears. Today\u2019s surging home prices are making many owners house-rich, able to tap\ninto that equity value if they find themselves facing uncertain financial times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, those who hope to buy face bidding wars. The struggle is real. Market research from <\/a>Realtor.com<\/a><\/em> indicates that the number of\u00a0homes\u00a0for sale has halved in the past year. It will take some time for the supply to rise from this point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, factor in an additional challenge: the surging price of lumber, copper, gypsum and steel. Builders are constructing foundations without finishing the houses, waiting and hoping for commodity prices to drop. Rising lumber costs<\/a> alone have added a whopping $36,000 to the price of building a house.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

High housing prices, low inventories, and prohibitive\nmaterial costs are leading some analysts to think the bullish housing market is\noverheated, overvalued, and unsustainable. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bearish Sign #3. Market Sentiment Is Down.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The drawn-out seller\u2019s market is a concern for many\npotential buyers. Some struggling homeowners will sell and move into rental homes\nwhile it\u2019s still a seller\u2019s market and they can salvage their equity. This is\nwhy residential\nrental real estate stocks<\/a> are still enjoying the upsurge that we\nnoted last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, fewer than half of respondents to Fannie Mae\u2019s new buying and selling sentiment survey think it\u2019s a good idea to buy a home. Month over month, from April to May 2021, the percentage who feel optimistic about buying fell from 53% to 47%, while the group who think this is the wrong time to buy<\/a> went up from 40% to 48%. Fannie Mae says the sentiment related to home buying has \u201cturned net negative for the first time in the survey\u2019s history.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sellers, too are concerned, if their selling plans mean they\u2019ll\nalso be buyers. Judging from Fannie Mae\u2019s survey results, many people might\nwant to be sellers, but could be holding off until they believe they can purchase\na suitable house in the necessary price range.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Count on Home Buyers\u2019 Changing Expectations. Beyond That\u2026 Let\u2019s See.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Although no one has a crystal ball, and Deeds.com <\/em>makes\nno assertions about the near-term or long-term housing market, we can make out\na few things from surveys, sentiment, and price trends. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summer 2021 should see a lot of activity \u2014 partly motivated\nby new trends, and partly by concerns that the current bull market in real\nestate could lose steam. And, alas, we need to be realistic about one more factor.\nWith under half the U.S. populace immunized so far, and variant viruses growing\nin several states, we have yet to reach closure on Covid-19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The takeaway so far? Whether you\u2019re a bull or a bear, it\u2019s\nbest to keep abreast of changed conditions, try to keep a cash reserve, and\nplan for a range of outcomes in late 2021 and beyond. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supporting References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ilyce Glink and Samuel J. Tamkin in the Washington Post:<\/em> 2021 Will Be Another Good Year for Home Sellers \u2014 Not So Much, Though, for Buyers<\/a> (Jan. 20, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brandon Cornett for the Home Buying Institute (HBI): U.S. Housing Market Will Be Hot in Summer 2021<\/a>(Mar. 14, 2021). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diana Olick for CNBC<\/em>: The Housing Market Stands at a Tipping Point After a Stunningly Successful Year During the Pandemic<\/a> (Mar. 12, 2021). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Diana Olick for CNBC<\/em>: Home Construction Sees Biggest Drop Since Pandemic Hit. Here\u2019s Why<\/a> (May 18, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fannie Mae Press Release: HPSI Dips as Consumers\u2019 Pessimism\nToward Homebuying Conditions Sets Survey Record; Gap Between Homebuying and\nHome-Selling Sentiment Continues to Widen (May 7,\n2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kevin Paffrath (Meet Kevin for Governor) on YouTube<\/em>: Timing for the Next Housing Market Crash<\/a> (May 22, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Carl Zimmer and Apoorva Mandavilli for the New\nYork Times<\/em>: How the United States Beat the Variants, for Now (May 14, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Photo credits:\u00a0 tkoch<\/a>, via Pixabay; Hans Eiskonen<\/a>, via Unsplash; and Janko Ferlic<\/a>, via Pexels. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Summer 2021 will be a hot one for the real estate market, says the Home Buying Institute. But is the raging home-buying bull market sustainable? With property values up well over 10% in many areas, some market watchers are asking if housing is a bubble. In fact, there are several good reasons for optimism ahead. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1423","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"\nReal Estate Markets in the Second Half of 2021: Bull and Bear Cases - Deeds.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Good reasons for optimism in real estate ahead. But these days, we\u2019re doing our best to prepare for anything. 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