{"id":2447,"date":"2022-09-02T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/?p=2447"},"modified":"2024-04-25T23:18:41","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T03:18:41","slug":"growth-recession-101-a-guide-for-homeowners","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/growth-recession-101-a-guide-for-homeowners\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cGrowth Recession\u201d 101: A Guide for Homeowners"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/growth-recession-1024x382.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2448\" width=\"1024\" height=\"382\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/growth-recession-1024x382.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/growth-recession-300x112.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/growth-recession-768x287.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/growth-recession-1536x573.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/growth-recession-2048x765.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>How Long Will It Last? Will My Equity Be Affected?<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Throughout 2022, the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) has been raising interest rates. The reason? To suppress inflation, and avoid a recession if we can.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At this point, we\u2019re supposedly headed for a \u201cgrowth recession.\u201d That\u2019s a financial slowdown rather than a full-blown recession. <em>Fortune<\/em> magazine tells us the term <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/08\/31\/what-is-growth-recession-federal-reserve-soft-landing-stock-market-plunging\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">growth recession<\/a> was coined in 1972 by Solomon Fabricant, President Eisenhower\u2019s chief economic adviser.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What does this mean for housing?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New Goldman Sachs Report Signals a Housing Downturn<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The United States is now experiencing its first housing downturn, says <em>Fortune <\/em>magazine, since the financial crisis of 2007 &#8211; 2009. What\u2019s that announcement based on? Glad you asked. It\u2019s based on the latest housing market report from Goldman Sachs. And what is <em>that <\/em>report predicting? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FortuneMagazine\/status\/1565061576847200257\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Housing sales dropping off<\/a> as part of the country\u2019s gross domestic product: An 8.9% housing drop for 2022, and a 9.2% drop in the forecast for 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This housing downturn is happening because of the Federal Reserve\u2019s actions. Yes, people are deliberately making this happen. How?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>When the Federal Reserve chair raises interest rates, the ripple effects push mortgage rates up. That\u2019s been happening.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Potential home buyers notice, and purchasing slows. That\u2019s been happening, too.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>In turn, builders slow down, putting a domino effect in play that\u2019s actually <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/07\/26\/housing-market-ecession-federal-resserve-home-prices\/\">intended<\/a> to beat down costs.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Whenever it tries to beat down inflation this way, the Fed risks driving the economy into a recession. Economists with the National Bureau of Economic Research are the people who formally declare when the United States has entered a recession. This body of experts has<em> not <\/em>called out a recession. But a housing slowdown? That term is in play, absolutely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u261b<\/em><strong><em>&nbsp;If we\u2019re entering a housing slowdown, potential home buyers could have doubts about whether a home purchased today is a smart buy. They\u2019ll want to learn how <\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/can-buying-a-home-offset-inflation\/\"><strong><em>buying a home helps offset the impact of inflation<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>. <\/em><\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FortuneMagazine\/status\/1565061776517087233\/photo\/1\"><strong><em><\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">So, the Cost of Homes Could Come Down?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignright size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/so-the-cost-of-homes-could-come-down.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2449\" width=\"378\" height=\"362\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/so-the-cost-of-homes-could-come-down.jpg 504w, https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/so-the-cost-of-homes-could-come-down-300x288.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 378px) 100vw, 378px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not exactly, although the rate of home sales should slow, and home prices won\u2019t rise so fast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Goldman Sachs thinks we\u2019ll see a rise in home prices that\u2019s under 2% for 2023.<\/strong> That\u2019s a far cry from the 18% hikes we all witnessed after the advent of Covid-19!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>While home prices could actually go down (and likely will in some areas), \u201clarge declines seem unlikely.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That\u2019s the verdict of the new Goldman Sachs report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But homeowners and investor owners will be glad to know that a real estate bear market \u2014 meaning an actual downward trend in property values \u2014 is unlikely for the residential market. Real estate bear markets are very rare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, the Goldman Sachs forecast predicts <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FortuneMagazine\/status\/1565062254252507138\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">home prices will rise again<\/a>, growing 3.5% in 2024, and close to 4% in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The report rings true with what we know about modern downturns. Most continue for less than two years. Then there are expansions, or upturns. And those typically continue for several years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Economic<\/strong> <strong>downturns generally resolve themselves, and the economy rebounds.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A Red Flag, But No Full-Blown Recession in the Forecast<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The stock market is taking a slow dive as the Fed struggles to meet its goal of taking inflation down to 2%. And lately, the Fed has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/now-theyre-talking-about-a-recession\/\">stopped assuring us we\u2019ll avert a recession<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The economy is already showing one major red flag: we\u2019ve just witnessed the second quarter in a row in which the gross domestic product (GDP) showed negative numbers. Financial analysts see that as a technical sign of a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most people across the country are anticipating an economic downturn. Plus, they\u2019ve been spending a lot on fuel so far in 2022. About half of us are holding off on discretionary buying now, according to polls <em>Fortune <\/em>magazine cites from a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bankrate.com\/banking\/federal-reserve\/recession-preparedness-survey-august-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bankrate survey<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the classic mood of a recession is a widespread fear of not getting by, because of potential unemployment. We\u2019re not seeing that now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Because jobs are available at this time, a full-blown recession is a long-shot scenario. &nbsp;<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In full-blown recessions, people lose jobs and default on mortgages, or otherwise have to sell their houses. They cut back on discretionary purchases and entertainment. Businesses suffer, and a wave of shutdowns follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Will an Economic Downturn Impact Your Home Equity? What About Your Mortgage?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Will homeowners feel the pain?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fortunately, the \u201cgrowth recession\u201d itself should have no impact on a fixed-rate mortgage, and very little impact on most peoples\u2019 property value and equity. Indeed, for most people, value appreciation should continue. Home prices are not fated to drop, even in a recession. &nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you have an adjustable-rate mortgage, and your initial lock-in period is over, your monthly payments have already been changing. An adjustable-rate mortgage has a variable interest rate \u2014 it tends to rise with federal interest rates. That\u2019s happening now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u261b <\/em><strong><em>The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau provides more information on&nbsp;<\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.consumerfinance.gov\/owning-a-home\/explore\/adjustable-rate-mortgages\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>adjustable-rate mortgages. Learn how your payment can change over time<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019ve been planning to sell or refinance your home in any case, then you\u2019re probably not too concerned. If you\u2019re going to keep it a while, you\u2019ll need to make long-term adjustments to your budget, to accommodate the rising interest percentages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some mortgage borrowers decide to pay, say, $100 or $200 extra on their loan principal each month. This way, they reduce the total interest they\u2019ll pay over the life of the loan. Most loan servicing websites have an option for borrowers to adjust their monthly payments, so that they pay extra principle each month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Silver Linings: Home Buyers Could Catch a Break in 2022-2023<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market is gradually settling down after a very wild ride. In 2020-2021, corporate investors and all-cash buyers swooped in to outbid ordinary people. Over the next two years, hopeful home buyers in some areas of the country should have a little breathing room.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u261b <\/em><strong><em>As the real estate market returns to Earth in key areas, sidelined buyers can try again. The remaining months of 2022, and all the way through 2023, should present opportunities. Here are <\/em><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/six-cities-where-home-buyers-might-finally-get-a-fair-deal\/\"><strong><em>Six Cities Where Home Buyers Might Finally Get a Fair Deal<\/em><\/strong><\/a><strong><em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The word \u201crecession\u201d doesn\u2019t do a lot for people\u2019s confidence, and \u201cgrowth recession\u201d doesn\u2019t sound a whole lot nicer. People will be watchful with their funds. One thing\u2019s now certain: the buying competition has cooled. The housing market is giving at least some breathing room to ordinary buyers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Supporting References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Will Daniel for <em>Fortune<\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/08\/31\/what-is-growth-recession-federal-reserve-soft-landing-stock-market-plunging\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The Stock Market Is Plunging and the Fed Is Giving Up on a \u201cSoft landing\u201d in Favor of a \u201cGrowth Recession.\u201d Buckle up<\/a> (Aug. 31, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Lance Lambert for <em>Fortune<\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/fortune.com\/2022\/08\/31\/housing-market-recession-to-be-even-bigger-in-2023-forecast-goldman-sachs\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">The U.S. Housing Market Downturn Will Be Worse in 2023, Forecasts Goldman Sachs<\/a> (August 31, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Evan Santiago for <em>The Charlotte Observer<\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.charlotteobserver.com\/news\/business\/article263965036.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">North Carolina Economist Explains When We\u2019ll Know the Recession Is Here and How Long It Will Last<\/a> (Aug. 2, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Ashley Sutphin for <em>RealtyTimes.com<\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/realtytimes.com\/consumeradvice\/homeownersadvice\/item\/1044649-what-happens-to-your-mortgage-during-a-recession\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What Happens to Your Mortgage During a Recession<\/a>? (Apr. 12, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Rebecca Lake for <em>SmartAsset.com<\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/smartasset.com\/investing\/what-is-a-bear-market-in-real-estate\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">What Is a Bear Market in Real Estate<\/a>?\u00a0(Aug. 9, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Deeds.com<\/em>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/thinking-about-an-adjustable-rate-mortgage-in-2022\/\">Thinking About an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage in 2022<\/a>? (Apr. 18, 2022).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">And as linked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-small-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Photo credits: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pexels.com\/photo\/a-man-leaning-on-glass-window-holding-a-smartphone-3760284\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Andrea Piacquadio<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pexels.com\/photo\/man-and-woman-sitting-at-table-6963047\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Mikhail Nilov<\/a>, via Pexels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Throughout 2022, the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) has been raising interest rates. The reason? To suppress inflation, and avoid a recession if we can. At this point, we\u2019re supposedly headed for a \u201cgrowth recession.\u201d That\u2019s a financial slowdown rather than a full-blown recession. Fortune magazine tells us the term growth recession was coined [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2447","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u201cGrowth Recession\u201d 101: A Guide for Homeowners - Deeds.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Throughout 2022, the Federal Reserve (the U.S. central bank) has been raising interest rates. The reason? To suppress inflation, and avoid a recession if we can. 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