{"id":2857,"date":"2023-03-20T09:00:00","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T13:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/?p=2857"},"modified":"2024-04-25T23:18:09","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T03:18:09","slug":"looking-for-silver-linings-do-bank-failures-mean-lower-mortgage-interest-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/looking-for-silver-linings-do-bank-failures-mean-lower-mortgage-interest-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Looking for Silver Linings: Do Bank Failures Mean Lower Mortgage Interest Rates?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Spoiler alert: They might! The other side of that coin? Expect lenders to be quite careful about how much they\u2019re lending out at this time. Mortgage lenders included.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Silicon Valley Bank\u2019s dramatic collapse doesn\u2019t mean banks are in trouble generally. But\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a tech-focused institution in the San Jos\u00e9 area<\/a>, SVB\u2019s stumble sends out a clear signal. Pricey California metros could see lower housing costs ahead. The bank\u2019s troubles could also throw cold water on the rapid rise of mortgage rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are the thoughts of Skylar Olsen, Chief Economist for Zillow, after Silicon Valley Bank\u2019s failure. About the potential for mortgage rate drops, Olsen tweeted: \u201cThat\u2019s comforting<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

So Far This Year, Mortgage Rates Have Been Anything But Comforting.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Fixed rates for thirty-year mortgages dipped to about 6.6% in mid-March. That\u2019s interesting, as they\u2019d reached a recent high of 7.05% in March\u2019s opening week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zillow\u2019s Olsen is hoping that this recent rate dip might \u201cthaw what was shaping up to be a fairly frozen spring home shopping season.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mortgage market had certainly become too treacherous for many. Home buyers across the country have been increasingly unwilling to deal with it since January 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a sort of double-whammy, that same treacherous mortgage market incentivized homeowners not to become sellers. That further helped to keep the housing market slow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Did Mortgage Rates Get So High, So Fast, in the First Place? Weren\u2019t They Just 3% in 2020-2021?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Yes! To help people get access to money when Covid first hit, the U.S. Federal Reserve (the central bank) slashed bank borrowing rates to nearly nothing in 2020. Mortgage rates followed the banking rates downward. So, in 2020 through early 2022, enticingly low interest rates led to a surge in home buying. Property values shot up everywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A sudden rise in inflation began. That inflation was especially evident in the housing market. Trying to stop it, the U.S. central bank started hiking rates back up in 2022. And the pendulum swung the other way. By raising the rates for banks, the U.S. banking leaders indirectly hiked mortgage rates, and that threw a wet towel over the red-hot seller\u2019s market of the Covid economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The average mortgage rate is well above 6% now! No change happens this quickly without causing stress, anxiety, and unpredictable outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, inflation hasn\u2019t stopped. So the government just keeps on hiking rates to press inflation back down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we wrote in January<\/a> of this year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s pretty clear, then, that the Fed won\u2019t be cutting rates over the course of 2023…All this rate-hiking activity could be overdone\u2026<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And here we are. At this point, we\u2019re looking at U.S. banking being rescued by the government\u2019s promises to keep depositors safe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Certain Banks Are Breaking Under the Stress of Federal Interest Rate Hikes.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

It began with Silicon Valley Bank in mid-March. SVB, as it\u2019s known, has been the leading financial player in the venture capital market, which boomed in 2020-21, before the federal rate hikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The surge in funding reflects a booming innovation economy, said Jack Milligan in the January 2022 issue of Bank Director Magazine<\/em>. Milligan added that the boom in funding was also driven by \u201cinstitutional investors attracted by the potential of high returns.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was a case of venture capital behaving badly. After all, should a bank be taking risks to chase high returns? Not if those risks could make it impossible for it to cover deposits in the event of financial panic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Within a week after SVB fell, a second bank had to close. This time, it was New York-based Signature Bank. While these are not the biggest names in banking, they aren\u2019t small, either. Their closures constitute the second and third biggest U.S. bank failures<\/a> ever. Other regional banks are already showing signs of stress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the \u201ctoo big to fail\u201d institutions like JP Morgan Chase, Citi and the rest of the financial giants, they are benefiting from the current \u201cflight to safety.\u201d People took money out of their regional banks. Why? Fear of not knowing what bank might stumble next. So they poured funds into the big-name banks. To stop the run on the smaller, regional banks, the federal Treasury stepped in and promised that depositors would not lose money from their accounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

San Francisco Home Sellers\u2019 Agents Are Feeling the Pain.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The San Francisco Bay Area is a good barometer for California tech hubs and their housing markets. There, the median home sale price was $1 million at the start of 2023. That was way down from last year. In April 2022, the area\u2019s median home prices reached about $1.5 million!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And now, San Francisco\u2019s housing market is caught up with SVB\u2019s troubles. Agents were hoping that the market would perk up as springtime approached, and they had good reason to hope. By the end of January 2023, the market was already looking up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the fortunes of many people in the Bay Area were bound to Silicon Valley Bank. Sellers were anxious to get done and out, but buyers shrank back. They feared that the SVB crisis was the tip of an iceberg. They feared that coastal startups could break, if SVB could.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, agents and their clients are nervous. Whenever nervousness arises in the financial world, the housing market will feel it. We\u2019re seeing this now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s interesting that an easing of mortgage rates could be a silver lining in the whole SVB debacle. CNN quotes Sam Khater<\/a>, Freddie Mac\u2019s chief economist, as saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turbulence in the financial markets is putting significant downward pressure on rates, which should benefit borrowers in the short term.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the stressed-out bank saga has just begun. We can expect mortgage lenders to be quite careful about how much they\u2019re lending out at this time. And that doesn\u2019t help hopeful home buyers whose loan applications aren\u2019t super-strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taking a Long-Term Outlook? It Could Be the Best Approach.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The big-picture question? How inflation and the federal interest rate will evolve in the future. And this means the central bank will likely continue to press back against inflation by keeping rates up \u2014 perhaps through the end of 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And overall, the trajectory is a cooling real estate market. The failure of SVB bank reinforces this, if Zillow\u2019s chief economist is right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While watching this all unfold can be interesting to hopeful homebuyers and those who root for them, it\u2019s not possible to predict the future. It\u2019s critical to know that inflation data is constantly emerging. In turn, federal policy makers are constantly responding to it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current mood could change in an instant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Supporting References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nate Bek for GeekWire.com<\/em>: How SVB\u2019s Collapse Could Impact Housing Markets, According to a Zillow Economist<\/a> (Mar. 14, 2023, citing figures published by the National Association of REALTORS\u00ae).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jennifer Epstein, Paulina Cachero, and Prashant Gopal for Bloomberg.com<\/em>: SVB Is a \u2018Nail in the Coffin\u2019 for Bay Area Housing Market\u2019s Gold Rush<\/a> (Mar. 14, 2023, citing the California Association of REALTORS\u00ae).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clare Trapasso for Realtor.com\u00ae<\/em>: Homebuyers Are Discovering the Upside to Bank Failures: Lower Mortgage Rates<\/a> (Mar. 14, 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jack Milligan, as quoted in Bank Director Magazine<\/em>: An Ecosystem of One<\/a> (Jan. 2022 issue).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matthew Graham for Mortgage News Daily<\/em>: The Fed Will Still Raise Rates in March, and That\u2019s Why Rates May Keep Falling (Mar. 17, 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as linked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Photo credits: Coolcaesar<\/a>, CC BY-SA 4.0; and Expect Best<\/a>, via Pexels.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Silicon Valley Bank\u2019s dramatic collapse doesn\u2019t mean banks are in trouble generally. But\u2026 As a tech-focused institution in the San Jos\u00e9 area, SVB\u2019s stumble sends out a clear signal. Pricey California metros could see lower housing costs ahead. The bank\u2019s troubles could also throw cold water on the rapid rise of mortgage rates. These are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"yoast_head":"\nLooking for Silver Linings: Do Bank Failures Mean Lower Mortgage Interest Rates? - Deeds.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"SVB\u2019s stumble sends out a clear signal. 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