{"id":6079,"date":"2024-10-28T23:39:33","date_gmt":"2024-10-29T03:39:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/?p=6079"},"modified":"2024-10-29T07:20:31","modified_gmt":"2024-10-29T11:20:31","slug":"as-asheville-recovers-home-buyers-rethink-the-whole-climate-haven-idea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.deeds.com\/articles\/as-asheville-recovers-home-buyers-rethink-the-whole-climate-haven-idea\/","title":{"rendered":"As Asheville Recovers, Home Buyers Rethink the Whole \u201cClimate Haven\u201d Idea"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Asheville, a quaint and popular North Carolina town, has long been known for its welcoming atmosphere and a mild, inviting climate. Indeed, a public radio station once showcased Asheville as winning the real estate stakes of an unsettled climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s now well understood that tropical storms get supercharged by human-driven effects on the atmosphere\u2019s temperatures. This same dynamic shaped a long drought, followed by a series of deadly fires that raged over the Great Smoky Mountains of Tennessee in November 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But some looked to Asheville as a safe haven, and they moved there in droves. Then came 2024, and Hurricane Helene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

How It Started\u2014And How It\u2019s Going<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Destructive storms, powered by warming sea surfaces, have pushed some people away from coastal regions. Ever since hurricane season hit the U.S. seacoast hard in 2017, significant numbers of people have headed inland. According to Vox.com<\/em>, rising flood risks \u201cmay have already pushed several million people\u201d to make such a move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some looked to the Midwest, where the Great Lakes offer plenty of water, and temperatures are relatively cool. Duluth, Minnesota received plenty of positive attention when the director of the Center on Climate Change and Urbanism at Tulane University was heard using the phrase \u201cclimate-proof Duluth<\/a>.\u201d (It was actually part of a marketing campaign commissioned by the University of Minnesota Duluth, which the professor was involved in.) The phrase first appeared in\u00a0The New York Times<\/em><\/a>\u00a0in 2019, quoting Jesse Keenan, Tulane\u2019s associate professor of sustainable real estate, who was lecturing at Harvard at the time. Yes, being a professor of sustainable real estate<\/a> is a thing now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The phrase hasn\u2019t aged well. Soon after The<\/em> New York Times<\/em> quoted it, the area flooded. And this past summer, northeast Minnesota was inundated with record-setting storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And over the past five years, the extreme weather events kept coming. The latest shock was Asheville. High ground, community-focused\u2026 Surely Asheville would be safe as any place can be. Census figures show Asheville\u2019s population steadily rising since 2010.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet, throughout much of the mountainous southeast, weather is losing its predictability, leaning into longer dry periods and heavier rains, landslides and flash floods. All the while, other regions are experiencing parallel changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA Today<\/em> published a column on sustainable real estate last year. It cited the sustainable real estate prof, and included a list of top cities welcoming climate-aware buyers. Asheville appeared in third place. The top spot went to Duluth, and Orlando came in second \u2014 presumably because of its inland location. Notably, Orlando, too, has faced its share of hurricane exposure. In early October 2024, you might have seen the headlines announcing Disney World and Universal closures as Hurricane Milton arrived.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vermont, too, has been called a possible haven. In recent years many people have looked to the state\u2019s real estate market to secure their futures. Cheryl Morse<\/a>, an environmental professor at the University of Vermont, explained: \u201cIn their imagination, Vermont presented a safer climate…\u201d Then, in 2011, the storm named Irene ravaged the area. Last year, Vermonters were overcome by Canada\u2019s wildfire smoke. Next, the state and its surrounding region experienced a multi-billion-dollar flood emergency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And how are things in Buffalo, New York since Mayor Byron Brown called it a \u201cclimate refuge\u201d in his 2019 State of the City address? (Note the haven hype<\/a> on a Buffalo economic development website published by Invest Buffalo Niagara, and the way so many reporters picked it up and ran with it.) The city has made the news this year for extreme summer storms<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Havens = Wishful Thinking?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Inland cities want to attract new taxpayers. It\u2019s tempting to seize upon the idea that a place is hazard-resistant. But it might be a good idea to do a bit more research before placing faith in a catchphrase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Helpful new rules have come out on flood disclosures<\/a> in Florida, and fire disclosures<\/a> in western states. And we can all do some digging into real climate risk factors before deciding to accept a deed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, a home seeker can see climate risk scores on the Zillow and Redfin real estate listings. The First Street Foundation, which developed the Risk Factor tool, is boldly leading the data processing for companies and agencies. Granted, First Street too has drawn critiques<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s important to remember the global<\/em> part of global warming. In other words: It\u2019s hard to stay away from fire-prone areas when we rightly value forests. Moving inland might be some protection from rising seas \u2014 and yet many towns are a stone\u2019s throw from tidal rivers. Floods are becoming increasingly hazardous<\/a>. Sugarcoating this would be a disservice to readers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yes, we can and should be careful about developing property near rivers and areas with high fire risks or repetitive flooding. But those presumably safer areas are becoming harder to find.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Plus, we need to think about the infrastructure and basic services in place. It\u2019s good to find a home on high ground, but we also need transit options that hold up under pressure, reliable power sources, and community-supportive resources. In fairness to Asheville, the city\u2019s Planning and Urban Design department is working hard to bolster the resilience of its people. The city has carried out a climate resilience assessment, and has been acting on its findings. Asheville focuses on transit options, preserving green spaces and addressing stormwater runoff. It\u2019s encouraging edible and native gardening initiatives. And it\u2019s reinforcing the strength of its population by promoting affordable housing and other needs of working people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Short, Real Estate Is Changing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We want to think there are safe or at least resilient places when we sign our mortgages. How well will a property hold up? Increasingly, climate is part of the evaluation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we\u2019re all dealing with the changes together. At the end of the day, what is a \u201chaven\u201d if it\u2019s insulated from what\u2019s going on around it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is why dealing with emissions in the first place is a vital priority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Supporting References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adam Clark Estes for Vox.com<\/em>: The Shady Origins of the Climate Haven Myth \u2013 How the Media, City Mayors, and the Real Estate Industry Filled Us With False Hope<\/a> (Oct. 9, 2024).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bob Henson for Yale Climate Connections, from the Yale Center for Climate Communication: Eye on the Storm Is the Idea of a \u201cClimate Haven\u201d Under Water<\/a>? (Oct. 1, 2024; incorporating input from multiple sources, including Dr. Jeff Masters, and data from NOAA and the U.S. National Climate Assessment).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

City of Orlando, Press Releases \u2013 Update #2 City of Orlando Hurricane Milton<\/a> (updated Oct. 7, 2024; reporting on a press conference in which Mayor Buddy Dyer declared that Orlando was in a declared State of Emergency).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iris Seaton for Asheville Citizen Times<\/em>, via CitizenTimes.com<\/em>: Asheville Ranks on List of Cities Most Likely to See Impact of \u201cClimate Migration<\/a>\u201d (Jun. 5, 2023; citing information from Adaptation Clearinghouse and other sources).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Debra Kamin for The New York Times<\/em>: Out-of-Towners Head to \u2018Climate-Proof Duluth\u2019<\/a> (updated March 13, 2023).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And as linked. A special shout-out to Vox.com<\/em> for its excellent reporting on the myth of the climate haven.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More on topics: <\/strong>Guarding Florida deeds from climate impacts<\/a>, <\/strong>Insuring climate risks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Photo credits: Public Domain Dedication<\/a>; and Bill McMannis<\/a> \/ Flickr<\/a> via Wikimedia Commons (licensed under CC-BY SA 2.0 Generic).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Asheville, a quaint and popular North Carolina town, has long been known for its welcoming atmosphere and a mild, inviting climate. Indeed, a public radio station once showcased Asheville as winning the real estate stakes of an unsettled climate. It\u2019s now well understood that tropical storms get supercharged by human-driven effects on the atmosphere\u2019s temperatures. 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