“Government Efficiency”: DOGE Firings Prompt a Wave of Home Selling in D.C.

The art of the deed transfer is going through some bizarre changes these days.

We have the question marks over tariffs. And we’re watching all sorts of housing policies become targets of the Trump administration. In the midst of all the turmoil, are residents being pushed out of our key government city — by Elon Musk’s DOGE?

“Starting to Look That Way” 

The D.C. area is seeing loads more homes for sale than it saw during last year’s spring season. It’s something Realtor.com (media of the National Association of REALTORS®) and RE/MAX have been watching since  January. Could part of the cause be the DOGE effect?

By March, Hanna Jones at Realtor.com told WTOP News it’s “starting to look that way.” 

That month, DOGE ended 200,000+ jobs in the federal sector. The Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, is a team that’s claiming to save money by (among other things) tearing up grants and agencies, and separating federal workers from their jobs.

In April, D.C. homes went on the market at the fastest pace in a decade. Listings were up a whopping 25% from last April. (Contrast that to a 14% rise in listings nationwide.) Redfin released these new stats in the first week of May.

Reasons to Get Up and Go

The newly unemployed government workers may decide that the Capital area is too pricey for them to stick around. Some will seek remote work to have more time with their families. Compounding this is the administration’s March decision to close childcare sites in federal buildings. There were more than 80 of these sites supporting federal workers nationwide.

Now, add all that to the impact of elevated inflation, including higher childcare costs, and it’s not hard to imagine workers, particularly female workers, deciding to make major life changes. Many will have no real choice.

At the same time, the U.S. military is also cutting staff positions and closing their childcare operations.

In short, a whole lot of people are seeking not only jobs, but licensed childcare services too. And they must go where those offerings exist.

Soaring D.C. Market Falls to Earth

For years now, available homes have been scarce. But homes are beginning to linger on the market somewhat longer these days, says Realtor.com. Bidding wars aren’t flaring — although it’s true that small, less expensive homes are hot.

Also, more listings are cropping up in certain places. In and around Washington, D.C., the number of active listings have surged for weeks on end.

The Capital city and its suburbs would, no doubt, suffer the biggest shakeup from firings and buyouts of U.S. government workers. More than one in ten D.C. residents is a federal employee.

Of course, there are many reasons for spikes in selling activity. But a clear trend is forming with people leaving Washington, D.C. and its suburbs. The supply of homes is expanding. And that means price inflation should catch a breather. And indeed it is. By March, the price tag on a typical D.C. home was already down 1.6%, year-over-year.

Housing supply is up in a number of cities federal workers have long called home. Where else, beside D.C., could we see prices coming down on account of government job cuts?

Other Markets to Feel the DOGE Effect  

According to a Realtor.com rundown of the top 50 U.S. metro areas, which are most likely to have inventories boosted by the DOGE effect? Look to the cities with federal workers making up 2%+ of the employed population.

• Virginia Beach and Richmond, Virginia. Virginia Beach is not too far from Washington. Plus, it has a major military population. The median home sale price is under $400K, and U.S. government workers make up 7% of the working population. Then there’s Richmond, where the median home goes for just over $400K, and prices are dipping further down. Almost 3% of the working population have U.S. government jobs.

• Baltimore. U.S. government workers make up nearly 4% of the working population in this bustling coastal city. DOGE aims to slash the General Service Administration (GSA) and many of its leases are around the Baltimore areas. This is yet another reason to expect more housing inventory across the Capital region.

• Kansas City. In Kansas City, Missouri, the median home price is $379K, down from the city’s highs. Nearly 3% of the employed population works for the federal government.

• Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma. U.S. government workers make up more than 4% of the working population in Oklahoma City alone. Many of them are employed at the 15 federal workplaces in Oklahoma that DOGE wants to gut.

• Cleveland. The typical home here goes for the relatively attractive price of $242K. Prices are rising at this time, but only gradually. Federal employees make up 2% of Cleveland’s working residents.  

• Tucson. In this popular Arizona city, homes go for under $400K and prices are easing. Federal employees make up 3% of the working residents.  

• San Diego. Homes are much pricier here, with the typical listing at $950K, although prices are clearly drooping. More than 3% of the working population have U.S. government jobs.  

• San Antonio. In this formerly red-hot Texas market, the median listing price is $327K. That’s well below the market’s highs. Three percent of the working residents are federal employees.

• Memphis. With a median listing price of under $330, Memphis has a healthy market and may be about to see a boost in inventory. That’s because nearly 3% of its working people are federal employees.

• Jacksonville and Tampa, Florida. Prices are falling in both of these metro areas. Jacksonville’s workforce consists of 2.5% federal workers. Tampa, with a median listing price just under $400K, also has a hefty population of federal employees.

• Buffalo. This gorgeous city, known for microbreweries and Niagara Falls, has an attractive median listing price: just under $250K. Home prices are easing slightly, and might well ease more, with the contingent of federal employees at 2% of the overall workforce.

So, if you’re looking to catch a break in the housing market, you might consider the severe shakeups in and around these cities as opportunities.