Changes Ahead for Deed Seekers: A Tale of Two Tsunamis

We’ve talked about the “silver tsunami.” The earliest boomers are now 80 years old. Many deeds are about to be passed on, and many homes will hit the market.

Now comes November 2026, and a more immediate “tsunami.” The country is experiencing a political realignment, from coast to coast and in between. This, too, has implications for the way deeds are acquired and held in the United States.

Let’s look at the tale of two tsunamis, and where they’ll take U.S. homeownership.

First, the Silver One

Starting now, and through the decade ahead, nearly 14 million homes will be released by their long-time residents aged 80+.

Given the interest in housing availability across the country, market watchers are busy making forecasts and charting out scenarios. Among these market watchers is the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). 

NAR maps out the coming shift in its new Realtor.com® Generational Housing Succession report. In one likely scenario, 45% of the deeds released by seniors next year turn into homes for sale. Just that much, according to the report, would bring annual listings up to the level they were at before 2020.

That sounds pretty good for long-sidelined renters who’ve been saving and looking, to no avail.

Now Comes the Rub

Economist Jiayi Xu, a researcher for Realtor.com, points out in the new report that the problem is not just the quantity of homes needed. Flooding the market with five-bedroom homes (and millions of these are expected to hit the market) will not help people find compact, affordable homes.

The National Association of REALTORS® says less than a fourth of U.S. homes are affordable to a household earning about $75,000. Four- and five-bedroom homes will not help these households.

(The typical U.S. annual wage is around $79K. But buying a median-priced home with 20% down and a 28% debt-to-income ratio requires an annual income of $90K.)

The economist warns that the “silver tsunami” could reshape the divide between the “haves” and “have-nots” of deeds. The sellers of mansions will have to look harder for buyers because it’s the “starter home” category where the need is pressing. And sellers of modest homes will still be too hard to find.

Only about 380,000 of the homes coming up in the “tsunami” will be two-bedroom homes or smaller. And this is why, Xu says, “restoring the number of homes for sale does not necessarily restore a balanced—or affordable—market.”

So, where are the modest homes? Will some of their current owners sell and buy bigger homes? Yes, but they could actually sell their modest homes to older buyers who have built up equity and come into the market with cash.

The takeaway? The silver tsunami is real. But it won’t fix affordability. Let’s look at the other tsunami and see how that could play out.

If you’re buying a home from a long-time owner, prepare for the future costs of updating and making repairs. Younger generations are becoming renovators.

There’s Another “Tsunami”: The Election Results. What Will They Mean for Deed Seekers?

High housing costs explain a lot about the recent midterm election results. People want policy changes. Severe deportation policies have shrunk the availability of electricians, plumbers, and roof crews. Tariffs have gone straight to the prices of construction materials. High fuel prices mean high shipping prices, further raising the costs of materials.

War spending has impacted mortgage rates as well. Officials from the U.S. Federal Reserve have repeatedly warned that military action is driving up energy prices and inflation, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates.

Housing is “seriously unaffordable” in about a third of counties across the country, says the real estate data firm ATTOM. This means housing costs take up 43% or more of local worker wages. Interest rates have been gradually rising and are over 7%. Rising inflation has kept deeds impossible to get for too many people who want them. All of this mattered at the polls this month. A voters’ tsunami materialized. Now, several states have shifted from Republican to Democratic governors. Can these states deliver on housing?

The States to Watch  

This month, voters elected Democratic governors in Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Nevada. In each of these states, Democrats pointed to the housing affordability crisis and promised to take it seriously.

• In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand was elected on a “Truer Better Agenda” promise. The state’s median home price is about $283K. Sand intends to get the homes built that people need. Sand has said he can work with the Republican-led state House and Senate to deliver.

• Texas has elected a Democratic governor for the first time in three decades. Gina Hinojosa will govern the largest homebuilding state in the nation. The median price is high: $365K. But it varies, and affordability can be found in and around San Antonio, Dallas, and Houston. The future outlook is good. Hinojosa has proven to be dedicated to housing affordability, and the Texas Association of Builders has expressed confidence in her incoming administration. In 2025, Hinojosa wrote a law to bar big corporations from buying any more than ten single-unit homes.

• The nation’s first-ever Black female governor, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, has just been elected governor of Georgia. As the mayor of Atlanta, Bottoms focused on affordable housing. As governor, she will introduce the Georgia Housing Fast Track for permitting and an affordable housing trust fund. She’s pledged to bolster down payment assistance for Georgia deed seekers.

• Ohio just voted in its first woman as governor: Amy Acton. Ohio’s typical income is $70K and its typical home price is $277K. Not bad, but the homes being built aren’t starter homes. Acton has pledged to ease the permitting process for building and renovation and expand state grants and tax cuts for rehabbing older homes. Acton also intends to limit corporations’ access to homes. She is also supportive of assistance for first-time deed seekers.

• With a median income of $75K, Nevada residents have no chance of affording the median home price, which is above $490K. Aaron D. Ford was just voted in as the state’s first Black governor. Ford, a Democrat, has pledged to ease permitting and focus on first-time buyer assistance.

The change in political winds is obvious to these candidates. Ford in Nevada, for one, will push back against federal tariffs. By Ford’s calculations, 115,000 households can’t get their own deeds on account of the extra costs imposed on homes by current federal tariff policies. It’s a surcharge, Ford asserts, that “working families cannot afford.”