Seasonal trends have an impact on home selling and buying success. Whether you’re receiving a real estate deed for the first time, or conveying your deed to a new buyer, having a sense of the market is helpful for planning.
The housing market stalled in 2023. Can this new Spring season reactivate it? Anything can happen. But one thing is already clear. Home buyers are back. And sellers are there to meet them.
Early-Bird Buyers Swoop In Before the Spring Rush
Redfin has noticed “strong spring homebuying” already starting, and it looks like it will last for a while. The National Desk just reported an influx of early-bird buyers “cashing in before the rush” as industry watchers anticipate a fertile Spring. Judging by Zillow’s newest market report, these buyers are reaping rewards. As of February, more than 20% of home listings show discounts.
When this Spring season finds its stride, Zillow says, home prices are likely to move upward. Industry pros think home prices could easily rise more than 2% this year.
Some, like Redfin, say property prices could shoot up 5%.
Last year, sellers were scarce. Why were there so few listings in 2023? Interest rates kept going up, and homeowners wanted to keep the loans they already had. So, many held onto their homes, and sales hit their lowest point since the 1990s.
Not everyone is convinced we’re out of the woods. A company that sells home improvement gear does not expect 2024 to make up for last year. Home Depot predicts a continued decline in its sales figures for 2024.
On the other hand…
Mortgage Loan Applicants Are Back
For six weeks in a row, mortgage applications have been ticking up. Why this new sign of optimism? Hopeful buyers see sellers coming back onto the market.
Buyers and sellers alike (or their agents) need market knowledge. And right on time, here are Redfin, Zillow®, and the National Association of REALTORS® with seasonal observations. Their recent reports contain statistics like these:
- Scarcity drove U.S. home prices up last year. Median home prices soared to $425K in June 2023.
- Home values and home prices have gone up year-over-year in 94% of the biggest 50 cities.
- Thanks to remote work, more buyers are free to telecommute, so they can shop for homes in smaller towns.
- A typical U.S. home now goes for $344K.
- The typical monthly mortgage payment is $1,760.
If that mortgage payment seems rather high, it is. The typical mortgage borrower pays double what borrowers were paying before the pandemic. Borrowing money has become more costly, due to the rise in interest rates.
If this combination of prices and mortgage rates seems too daunting, buyers can consider less costly types of homes. Realtor.com® makes a great point: Upscale areas (the company mentions Delray Beach in Florida; Reno, Nevada; and Galveston, Texas) offer condos for sale at just half the price of houses.
Will Mortgage Rates Ease Up Any More?
There is some good news for today’s buyers about those interest rates. According to Freddie Mac’s numbers, a 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.7% — so it’s come down a whole percentage point since last year’s spike.
Even so, mortgage rates close to 7% seem steep — in a time when most people have home loans with interest rates under 4%. Many homeowners are hoping for larger rate drops in 2024 before preparing to sell, buy, and move. But are serious rate drops likely?
Assuming the U.S. central bank goes ahead and cuts lending rates by the summer, mortgage rates should go down, too. Then, we should see sellers filtering in throughout the summer and beyond. That would make for an evenly paced rebound in the 2024 market.
This is all better than previously expected. Redfin predicted earlier that prices would stay mostly flat, but it’s updated its forecast. That’s based on all the activity in the market already, just two months into 2024.
The activity was already starting to appear when mortgage interest eased a bit in December 2023. At that point, real estate websites started getting more traffic from people looking for properties and tours. And now, says Zillow, home listings are 3% more plentiful than they were a year ago. Even more interesting is the rate at which new listings are coming online. That rate is up close to 6% from where it was a year back.
That said, this year’s listings so far have not risen to the volume we normally saw before the pandemic chaos of 2020. People still want lower mortgage rates.
So, what kinds of moves do market watchers think we’ll see in interest rates this year? The National Association of REALTORS® expects the typical 30-year mortgage to get down to a 6.3% rate in the second half of 2024. Zillow and Redfin think we’ll see rates at 6.5% by the year’s end.
Time to Make a Move This Spring?
If the following scenarios look familiar, then waiting until the end of the year could mean missing out on deals.
- For buyers. Industry insiders think rates will come down slowly from summertime on. Waiting for that point (if it happens) will bring out more buyers. Whenever buyer competition rises, prices trend up. That’s why some buyers are moving in now, looking for lower prices (and lower tax assessments). They could refinance later, if rates really swoon.
- For sellers. Holding out until summer or later might or might not make sense. Real estate economists expect only a gentle easing in interest rates. Sellers holding on for rates to drop below 4% again could keep themselves locked in for a long, long time! If life events are nudging owners to sell, they might find the 2024 market just right.
But these are general industry observations. This article is not financial advice, and it cannot substitute for local and personal guidance. After all, each local real estate market is unique. Even within one city, different market dynamics play out. So, if you are getting curious about buying or selling a home this year, consider speaking with local real estate pros. Check the leading real estate sites for your area. Watch the rate at which home listings appear, how fast contracts are signed, and whether the homes are going at a discount.
And if you gave up on the housing market last year and haven’t checked since, it’s time to take another look.
Supporting References
Cory Smith for The National Desk: Ready Buyers Can “Cash In Before the Rush” as Housing Market Eyes Spring Rebound (published through via ABC 15 News / WWMB, Feb. 16, 2024). The National Desk (TND) is produced by the Sinclair Broadcast Group.
Jennifer Sor for Insider Inc. via Business Insider: Spring Home Buying Season Is Near. Real Estate Pros Say This Year’s Rush Could Push Prices Up 5% After a Weak 2023 (Feb. 10, 2024).
Evan Wyloge for the National Association of REALTORS® via Realtor.com®: Condo? Can Do! Here’s Where Townhomes and Condos Will Deliver the Biggest Discounts for First-Time Homebuyers (Jan. 2, 2024).
And as linked.
More on topics: 2024 interest rates, Buying while mortgage rates are still high
Photo credits: Alena Koval and Nadi Lindsay, via Pexels/Canva.